U.S. Treasury volatility has fallen to its lowest level since 2021 as the MOVE Index dropped to 67 points. The decline reflects growing market stability following recent Fed rate cuts, tighter corporate credit spreads, and easing Treasury yields. The 10-year yield has fallen by 70 basis points to 4.10%, signaling renewed confidence in U.S. bond markets.
Treasury Volatility Falls to Lowest Level Since 2021
U.S. bond market volatility has eased significantly, reaching its lowest level in nearly four years. The MOVE Index, a key measure of U.S. Treasury yield volatility often referred to as the “VIX of bonds,” dropped to 67 points last week — the lowest reading since November 2021.
The MOVE Index tracks volatility across 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. Its sharp decline indicates a more stable environment in the bond market after a period of intense turbulence earlier this year. Since April, the index has fallen by 73 points as investor confidence returned following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” sell-off, which had briefly unsettled global fixed-income markets.
Several factors have contributed to the easing volatility. The Federal Reserve implemented two consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October, signaling a more accommodative monetary stance. In addition, corporate credit spreads have narrowed to their lowest level of this century, reflecting improved market sentiment and stronger risk appetite.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen by 70 basis points since January, currently standing at around 4.10%. The decline underscores renewed investor demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a softer economic outlook in the coming quarters.
Overall, the latest data suggest that U.S. bond markets are entering a phase of relative calm, with reduced volatility and firmer stability after years of monetary tightening and market uncertainty.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented is based on publicly available data and market reports at the time of writing.